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☆ The U.S. is now Germany’s biggest trading partner — taking over from China
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Photo: Christoph Soeder/dpa (Photo by Christoph Soeder/picture alliance via Getty Images)After years of China being Germany's main trading partner, the U.S. looks like it's quietly taking that top spot as the year progresses. Several factors played a role in the change, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Research, told CNBC. […] At the same time, decoupling from China, weaker domestic demand in China and China being able to produce goods it previously imported from Germany (mainly cars) reduced German exports to China," he said. China has been Germany's biggest trading partner for years, but the gap between China and the U.S. narrowed in recent years. The U.S. has also long been a bigger market for German exports than China, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC.

Persons: Habeck, Christoph Soeder, it's, Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, China's, Schmieding Organizations: German, Getty, U.S, CNBC, Reuters, ING Research, Berenberg Bank Locations: Germany, China, U.S

☆ Golden visas attracted wealthy Americans to Southern Europe. Then their housing crisis followed.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Eliza Relman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

This is in part the doing of so-called "golden visas," hugely popular residency visas for foreign investors. And they purchased more Portuguese golden visas than any other nationality in 2022. Related storiesBut as Portugal has experienced a worsening housing affordability crisis, Portuguese public opinion on golden visas has soured. Last year, the country changed the terms of its golden visa program to exclude real estate investment. Other southern European countries are following suit, similarly pointing to skyrocketing real estate prices.

Persons: —, They're, they're, João Pereira dos Santos, Pereira dos Santos, Nuno Fazenda, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, David Zorrakino Organizations: Service, Business, The New York Times, School of Economics, Finance, Queen Mary University of London, State, Tourism, Trade, Services, Bloomberg, Berenberg Bank, Getty, European Central Bank, Paris Locations: Greece, Portugal, Tourism, Lisbon, Athens, Spain, Southern Europe, Portuguese, London, Ramblas, Barcelona, Catalonia, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, France

☆ Wall Street analysts think this portfolio industrial stock should be 20% higher
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer has been saying for weeks now that the economy is too strong to consider rate cuts. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell's, didn't, Powell, Locker, there's, Jeff Marks, Berenberg, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Club, Management, Wall Street, Honeywell, Berenberg Bank Locations: FL

☆ Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and glimmers of hope are few and far between
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"The data confirm that German industry is still in recession," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC. Exports – which are a major cornerstone of the German economy – fell by 4.6% in December and 1.4%, or 1.562 trillion euros ($1.68 trillion), across the year. Meanwhile, factory orders data seemed promising at first glance as it reflected an 8.9% increase in December compared to November. "Orders excluding large-scale orders actually fell to a post-pandemic low," she added. For 2023 overall in comparison to the previous year, factory orders were down 5.9%.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Christian Lindner, Holger Schmieding, –, Franziska Palmas, Schmieding Organizations: Greens, Federal, Economic Affairs, of Finance, Berenberg Bank, CNBC, Industrial, Capital Economics Locations: Germany, Europe

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe’s economy failed to expand at the end of 2023, with the stagnation now lasting for more than a year amid higher energy prices, costlier credit and lagging growth in powerhouse Germany. Zero economic growth for the October-to-December period of last year follows a 0.1% contraction in the three months before that, according to figures released Tuesday by EU statistics agency Eurostat. That extends a miserable run of economic blahs: The 20 countries that use the euro currency have not shown significant growth since the third quarter of 2022, when the economy grew 0.5%. With higher shipping costs and delays to products from clothes to keyboard components, concerns are growing of new consumer price spikes if the conflict in Gaza drags on or escalates. The trade disruption could add as much as 0.5% to core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, Oxford Economics said.

Persons: ”, Holger Schmieding, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: EU, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, ECB, Hamas, Oxford Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Suez, Asia, Europe, Berenberg, United States, Russia, Ukraine, Red, Africa, Gaza

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will likely push back Thursday against expectations for quick interest rate cuts even as Europe's economy sputters and financial markets froth in hopes of cheaper credit that would boost business activity and stock prices. Lagarde has cautioned that the bank will make decisions based on the latest figures about the economy's health rather than making longer-term promises. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials discussed prospects for rate cuts at the bank's December meeting, and the U.S. central bank has indicated it would cut its key interest rate three times this year. Rate cuts make riskier investments like stocks more attractive than safer bets like money market accounts and certificates of deposit. Expectations for rate cuts have been fueled by the rapid drop of inflation in Europe to 2.9% in December from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, “ Lagarde, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Union Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Frankfurt, U.S, Europe, Ukraine, Berenberg, Suez, Africa

It's clear how that will end.”Germany’s constitutional court has voided some 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in spending for this year and next. Without yet another emergency declaration next year, the government would have to scramble to cover shortfalls of roughly 30 billion to 40 billion euros — plus 20 billion to 30 billion euros for 2025 — compared with earlier plans, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank. The fallout has left Germany projected to be the worst-performing major economy this year, shrinking by 0.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund. That has led to calls from some to loosen the debt limits because they restrict the government's response to new challenges. Yet even some opposition state governors have said the debt limits should be loosened.

Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz, “ We've, Robert Habeck, “, ”, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Free Democrats doesn't, Kai Wegener Organizations: U.S, International Monetary Fund, Industry, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Benz, Seven, Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats, Christian Democrats, Berlin Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Ukraine, Russia, China, Berenberg, East Germany, Europe, Britain, U.S, Italy, Japan

LONDON (AP) — Britain's Conservative government will try to win favor with voters by cutting taxes but avoiding worsening inflation in a budget statement Wednesday, coming ahead of a likely national election next year that opinion polls suggest it will lose. Sunak said Monday that his government would “cut tax and reward hard work” but would “avoid doing anything that puts at risk our progress in controlling inflation." Political Cartoons View All 1262 Images“Now that inflation is halved and our growth is stronger — meaning revenues are higher — we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax,” he said. The election must be held by January 2025, with speculation focusing on May or sometime next fall. Arguably, cutting personal taxes will make that “journey” more difficult because it would likely raise consumer spending, thereby ratcheting up price pressures.

Persons: —, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt's, ”, “, ” Sunak, Liz Truss, Hunt, There's, hasn't, “ Hunt, Kallum Pickering, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Conservative, Conservative Party, Labour Party, Bank of, Bank of England Locations: Ukraine, Berenberg

Underscoring the frustration, Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the pro-spending Greens, called the verdict "a huge blow to industrial policy". Speaking to parliament, Habeck warned the court ruling put at risk support for the steel sector, which is counting on subsidies to decarbonise and stay competitive. Finance Minister Christian Lindner meanwhile said it was too early to discuss the consequences of the court ruling. "The steel industry alone can contribute to reducing a third of total industrial emissions - and thus has enormous leverage to save millions of tons of CO2 in the coming years." "The political bottom line is that many coalition disputes will reopen as serious budget constraints kick in.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, BERLIN, Wednesday's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Habeck, Yesenn, DBRS Morningstar, hawkish Lindner, Lindner, Bernhard Osburg, Carsten Brzeski, Eurointelligence, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Andreas Rinke, Markus Wacket, Tom Kaeckenhoff, Matthias Williams, Alexandra Hudson, Susan Fenton Organizations: Finance, Climate, Economy, Greens, CHANGE, Budget, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, Berlin, Germany

It follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the loss of Moscow's cheap natural gas — an unprecedented shock to Germany’s energy-intensive industries, long the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe. The loss of cheap Russian natural gas needed to power factories “painfully damaged the business model of the German economy,” Kullmann told The Associated Press. One hotly debated solution: a government-funded cap on industrial electricity prices to get the economy through the renewable energy transition. However, squabbling among the coalition government over the energy price cap and a law barring new gas furnaces has exasperated business leaders. “The perception of Germany's underlying strength may also have contributed to the misguided decisions to exit nuclear energy, ban fracking for natural gas and bet on ample natural gas supplies from Russia,” he said.

Persons: “, Christian Kullmann, Kullmann, ” Kullmann, Evonik, Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel, —, Biden, Scholz, Evonik's Kullmann, Gerhard Schroeder, Holger Schmieding, ”, ” Schmieding, Schmieding Organizations: Jobs, International Monetary Fund, European Union, Evonik Industries, Associated Press, Greens Party, Social Democrat, Free Democrats, Companies, Schott AG, ” Locations: ESSEN, Germany, Ukraine, Europe, Europe's, Essen, Russia, Moscow, China, Bavarian, U.S, Lafayette , Indiana, Brussels, Berlin, Chile, Qatar, ” Germany, Berenberg

☆ Oil prices are on track for their strongest run since before Russia invaded Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

US oil prices are also set for a 3.9% gain this week, and have chalked up their longest rally since April 2022. So why are oil prices climbing? Oil output cutsAccording to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day to a record 102 million this year. But global oil production is forecast to rise by only 1.5 million barrels per day to 101.5 million, the agency said in a report this month. That failed to materialize, a factor that weighed on oil prices earlier this year.

Persons: —, “, ” Giovanni Staunovo, Staunovo, Justin Sullivan, Edward Gardner, Gardner, Xi Jinping Organizations: London CNN —, Brent, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, OPEC, UBS, CNN, Saudi, Getty, Capital Economics, Communist Party’s Locations: Ukraine, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Gulf, Europe, France, Spain, Germany, Europe’s

☆ Europe didn't roll back post-2008 banking rules. That was smart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Shares in European banks slumped Wednesday as speculation about the health of Credit Suisse (CSGKF) reignited the market turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, has fallen 13% since last Wednesday’s close. In 2018, former President Donald Trump watered down key parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, which set stricter rules for the banking sector. But European banks are required to hold capital to cover the risk of a large and sudden change in borrowing costs. “This means that European banks have less exposure to market risk on bonds, despite a similar rise in yields,” Moody’s said in its note.

☆ Europe's natural gas prices fall below €50
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —Europe’s natural gas prices have tumbled to their lowest level in nearly 18 months in the latest sign the region has avoided a much-feared energy crisis. Benchmark wholesale gas prices fell almost 5% Friday to hit €49 ($52) per megawatt hour, their lowest level since September 2021 and a fraction of the all-time high of €320 hit in August last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Service. The plunge in prices will further reduce the risk of a recession in Europe. Gas stores across the European Union were 65% full on Thursday, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, an industry body. The bloc has also boosted imports of pipeline natural gas from Norway, and of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a chilled, liquid form of gas that can be transported via sea tankers — mostly from the United States and Qatar.

☆ Ford to cut 11% of its European workforce in EV push
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Ford has announced plans to axe 3,800 jobs across Europe, citing difficult economic conditions and its major push toward electric vehicles. Economic pressureThe job cuts also come on the back of “unprecedented economic and geopolitical headwinds” in the region, a Ford spokesperson told CNN. The past year has been difficult for European manufacturers. The eye-watering costs weighed on producers, causing some to slash production, relocate parts of their operations outside Europe, and lay off staff. Wholesale gas prices — a key input for much of Europe’s heavy industry — are now back to their pre-war levels.

☆ Europe grew faster than the US last year. Its markets are outperforming too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The overall rise is a reversal of a 15-year trend that has seen US stock indices, flush with fast-growing tech companies, consistently beat those across the Atlantic. Over the past decade, investors poured money into fast-growing tech stocks, aided by ultra-low interest rates. (SXXL)But tech companies have taken a beating recently. Tech companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet, announced thousands of layoffs last month. High interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow to expand their business, raising doubts about their future earnings.

☆ Bank of England readies another rate hike even as recession hits
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has faced both encouraging and worrying news on the economy since a majority voted in early November to raise rates by 0.75 percentage point, the biggest hike since 1989. A big majority of the 54 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted a 0.5 percentage point increase in Bank Rate, which would take it to a 14-year high of 3.5%. Investors mostly agree although financial markets put a roughly 25% chance of another 0.75 percentage point hike. The annual rate of consumer price inflation dropped to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October, a lower rate than the BoE had pencilled in last month. "We think the Bank will opt for further hikes in the first half of 2023, until inflation shows less momentum."

☆ Russia's hopes for a Republican landslide to hurt Ukraine are vanishing fast
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Shift in power ... and Ukraine support? Russia could well hope that a shift in power after the the midterm elections could herald a cooler attitude toward Ukraine. "Further, most Republicans remain staunchly committed to Ukraine support, despite House minority leader Kevin McCarthy's announcement of 'no blank check' for the Ukrainians under a Republican-led House. Russia's President Vladimir Putin listens while then-U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in Helsinki, Finland, in 2019. "The war in Ukraine must provide the U.S. with the best chance for regime change in Russia, of taking Putin out.

☆ Liz Truss' 'trickle-down economics' is dead. Now the UK faces an uncertain future
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss holds a press conference in the Downing Street Briefing Room in central London on Oct. 14, 2022. Daniel Leal | Afp | Getty ImagesLONDON — Just six weeks into U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss' tenure and the political future of yet another Conservative leader looks to be in jeopardy. The approach has been sharply criticized by U.K. political opponents — and even U.S. President Joe Biden — at a time when Britain faces a deepening cost-of-living crisis. However, analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group assign only a 10% possibility that Truss is able to hold on as prime minister. "The consensus at Westminster is now that that the Prime Minister is so weak that she can do nothing without the assent of her Chancellor.

☆ More pain in the pipeline for Germany, economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMore pain in the pipeline for Germany, economist warnsHolger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, discusses the latest producer price data out of Germany and the outlook for Europe's largest economy.

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